Ever since the United States (US) killed General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Gaurd Corps, there has been paranoia in the world. Most of the world fears the outbreak of a full scale war between the US and Iran and subsequently, the third world war. Although the fear is well meaning, a deeper reading reveals that the fear is unfounded.
First of all let's be very clear here, Iran is no Afghanistan or Iraq, Donald Trump is no George Bush and this is not the post 9/11 world anymore. This is 2020 and geopolitics is very different today.
Iran may not be equipped with the latest or "beautiful" military equipment but it is the force of the Middle East. It's no Taliban whom US may have overrun easily though even Taliban could not be subdued after so many years of NATO presence. It's has a very professional standing army which will fight till it can and taking a cue from Vietnam, it may not augur well for the United States. Also American Army has little knowledge of the Iranian terrain and will find it hard to adapt to it against a battle hardened army.
Comparison done by experts takes into the full military might of the US while calculating the outcome. No doubt on paper, the US is far and far ahead but I find it very problematic because the United States cannot bring everything it has into the battle but Iran can. So it doesn't matter if Iran has fewer aircraft or tanks, it can give the US a run for its money.
Another reason is that US doesn't have the support of Europe and NATO on this. George Bush could wage a war in Afghanistan and Iraq due to the backing of NATO but Trump doesn't have that luxury. He has bitterly fallen out with NATO and has been at loggerheads with the alliance since the day he assumed office. European powers did not back him when he decided to walk out of the nuclear deal with Iran and it's least likely that they will back him if it comes to war. Nobody wants another long drawn out war in the Middle East. Atleast, not when it has a potential of blowing out of control. And don't forget the oil prices. If this blows into a full conflict, the oil prices will shoot through the roof.
I can go on and on but I think my point has been made. What Trump seems to be doing is some posturing as US Presidential elections are in sight? He wants to come across as a tough guy who fears no one to rally his electoral base around him. If he had to attack, he would have the day Iran fired missiles on US base. He did not and will not. The US is not naive to get into another war when already it has a huge International debt.
Shivam Pratap Singh is a student of International Politics at the MMAJ Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia. Interested in both national and international politics. The views expressed are personal.
He can be contacted @shivamdoad on Twitter and @lucifer_incatnated on Instagram.
