Bangladesh’s descent into chaos is a looming threat to India’s eastern frontier

The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the “Chicken’s Neck”, shown by the pin on this Google Maps screenshot.

Bangladesh has been in a perpetual state of upheaval since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government on August 5, 2024. This cycle of instability has led to societal and political disharmony, with the radicalization of the majority population jeopardizing the safety and security of minorities. Incidents following the fall of Hasina’s government have predominantly revealed an anti-India mindset within the present dispensation.

The latest UN report, released on February 12, 2025, revealed that attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh began even before Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee to India. The report also disclosed that, in addition to Hindus, Ahmadiyya Muslims and indigenous groups were targeted, with atrocities committed against them in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh.

The internal instability and radicalisation of the majority have placed minorities in an untenable situation, leaving them with no option but to flee their homes, illegally cross the border, and enter India. Political and societal instability in Bangladesh has transformed the 4,096-kilometre border – once characterized as safe and normal – into a hyperactive and hostile frontier.

Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

The regional geopolitical design and dynamics in Bangladesh indicate a major shift towards China and Pakistan, despite China already having established massive economic and military footprints in Bangladesh. The new political establishment has knowingly provided space for the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to operate. Bangladesh and Pakistan have formed a strategic anti-India alliance to target India’s northeast, with the aim of altering the demographic character of the region, providing permanent footholds to ISI operatives, and engulfing the area in turmoil.

According to intelligence reports, the ISI has begun training Rohingya insurgents in the Naikhongchari sub-district of Bandarban district in Chittagong division and Islamist terrorist groups in Brahmanbaria district bordering Tripura, as well as inside Khadimnagar National Park in Sylhet district bordering Meghalaya. Bangladesh thus targets India’s internal and external security all along the border, encompassing the entire northeast and the strategic Siliguri Corridor. This appears to be a grand design to disturb peace through low-intensity conflict activation with Chinese and Pakistani support.

The Border Security Force (BSF) is deployed along the India-Bangladesh border. Bangladesh’s anti-India mindset makes it incumbent upon the BSF to design its strategic and tactical doctrine aimed not only at countering Bangladesh border guards and radical elements but also at preparing for possible confrontations involving China and Pakistan – effectively being prepared to face a troika of three adversaries on the Bangladesh border, similar to how it confronts a group of two on the western border.

Implications for Border and Internal Security

A hostile Bangladesh poses significant threats to border security. The India-Bangladesh border, often treated as safe by security and civil establishments, has suddenly turned hostile and hyperactive, taking India by surprise. The radicalized majority in Bangladesh has foisted insecurity upon minorities, forcing them to abandon their homes and flee to India by illegally crossing the border. Such attempts will invite retaliation from the Border Security Force, further worsening the border security situation. This also creates space for localized conflicts, disturbing peace along the entire border.

Infiltration by Bangladesh- and ISI-sponsored elements is likely to increase, thus challenging the impregnability of border security and affecting internal security. Bangladesh has objected to fencing in many areas, citing security concerns, as it considers fencing as having defence potential – contrary to the Indian view, which considers it aimed at checking trans-border crimes. The border geography along the entire Bangladesh frontier is highly complicated, with many villages and houses situated directly on the international border, making fencing both difficult and, in some places, a redundant proposition.

The porous border – with riverine gaps, unfenced areas, char lands (river islands), and populations living ahead of fencing and on the international boundary – leaves considerable space for illegal immigration, infiltration, and anti-India activities such as radicalisation of the local population, smuggling, and the luring of locals for intelligence gathering and espionage. These activities affect both border and internal security, jeopardising national security as a whole.

The Bangladesh border has become operationally one of the most challenging frontiers in the world, making it riskier and more dangerous than the western border, as the fight on this border involves both hostile and ostensibly friendly human elements. This hostile and volatile border security situation has put considerable pressure on command and troops, leading to monotony, isolation, and frustration, ultimately resulting in stress and a decline in effectiveness and efficiency.

Gaps in border security and the porosity of borders directly affect internal security. They change the demographic character of the northeast region, especially in bordering districts, making them mini-Bangladeshi enclaves. This affects peace, development, and the economy in the long run in the fragile northeastern region, already burdened with an illegal Bangladeshi population. Thus, the porous border poses a major national security threat despite efforts by the BSF to guard it effectively.

Necessary Steps to Protect India’s National Security Interests

To protect its national security interests, India needs to implement a cocktail of measures at both diplomatic and security levels, primarily to address border security concerns. A hostile Bangladesh, coupled with the troika of Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan, not only destabilises borders but also threatens the Siliguri Corridor, also called the “Chicken’s Neck”, and the entire northeastern region.

The first and foremost step is to address the porosity of the Indo-Bangladesh border by:

* Plugging natural and artificial gaps and unfenced areas.
* Relocating villages situated ahead of fencing, on the zero line, and in char lands behind the fence.
* Reducing battalion areas of responsibility along the entire Bangladesh border by inducting additional battalions.
* Providing surveillance devices and technical gadgets to battalions on par with the western border for better border management in a complicated border geography, allowing technology to act as the eyes and ears of personnel where human observation is not possible.
* Strengthening the water wing with additional induction of modern boats all along the riverine borders.

The Siliguri Corridor is strategically critical for connecting the northeast with mainland India. China and Bhutan lie to the north, Bangladesh to the east, and Nepal to the west, encircling this vital passageway. Currently, the northern section of the corridor is manned by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), the western bank with Nepal is manned by SSB, and the eastern bank with Bangladesh by the Border Security Force.

Both Nepal and Bangladesh have tilted strategically towards China, allowing Beijing to exercise influence on all sides of the Siliguri Corridor. China is also eyeing an early agreement to resolve its border dispute with Bhutan to establish dominance over the corridor. Hence, the security of this corridor is of utmost strategic value for maintaining connectivity between the seven northeastern states and mainland India.

There is a need to reassess and revisit the security arrangements for the Siliguri Corridor. For this purpose, its border management requires a unified approach under a single force. The Border Security Force has been deployed along the eastern bank of the corridor since its inception and has vast experience in both peacetime and wartime border security. For better-coordinated border management, the government should consider a proposal to hand over security of the western part of the corridor along the Nepal border to the Border Security Force.

This would result in a single force managing the borders of the Siliguri Corridor, ensuring better-coordinated security for this strategically important strip, which is just 23 km wide at its narrowest point. This requires assessment and decision-making from a national security perspective, potentially overriding the Kargil group of ministers' recommendation of "one border, one force."

Effective peacetime border management is a harbinger of better government-to-government and people-to-people relations between neighbours. Thus, there is also a need for professional advice to the diplomatic community on border management issues. The government should explore the possibility of posting Border Security Force officers in embassies and consulates to provide professional inputs to the government and act as a bridge for better coordination between the two border-guarding forces. This would help address border issues in a more effective and prioritized manner.

India Must Waste No Time

The present ruling dispensation in Bangladesh is overwhelmed with anti-India sentiments, which are clearly visible in the incidents of violence against Hindus, the destruction of all symbols of India's presence in the nation's psyche – such as the Bangabandhu Bhawan and Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre – and roadblocks on border-fencing projects. These actions create an environment of distrust and insecurity along the borders.

The India-Bangladesh border requires heavy fortification not only to defeat the nefarious designs of the Bangladeshi establishment but also to keep the troika of Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan away from India’s eastern border and northeast. The government needs to act on priority, reassessing border management and border guarding priorities for the India-Bangladesh border to safeguard national security interests in this increasingly volatile region.