HTS fighters in Damascus. (Photo via X)
New Delhi: The decadelong Syrian civil war reached a dramatic turning point as the government of President Bashar al-Assad was toppled, and Damascus fell into the hands of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Assad fled the capital as HTS fighters marched triumphantly into the city, marking the collapse of a regime that had ruled Syria for over two decades.
Assad fled the country to Russia with his family, where he has been granted asylum, Russian media reported.
The swift takeover of Damascus comes after weeks of intense fighting across key provinces. Rebel forces, bolstered by new alliances and advanced weaponry, overwhelmed the Syrian Arab Army defences that had been weakened by years of attrition and economic sanctions.
The fall of Damascus signifies a watershed moment in the Syrian conflict, throwing the nation into uncharted political and social turmoil, along with the Middle East, into a new geopolitical landscape.
HTS has declared the establishment of an interim Islamic authority in Damascus, emphasizing their commitment to re-establishing order and governance. However, concerns abound over their hardline Islamist ideology and its potential impact on Syria’s diverse population. The international community has reacted cautiously, with some nations condemning the development while others urging dialogue to avoid further escalation.
Assad regime’s dramatic collapse
The fall of Damascus was the culmination of a blistering rebel campaign. HTS began its rapid advance weeks earlier in Idlib, where their consolidation of power among various rebel factions provided a stronghold to launch offensives. Capitalizing on the fragmented state of Assad’s forces, they moved southward, capturing key cities like Hama and Homs within days.
HTS employed a combination of guerrilla tactics, propaganda, and strategic alliances with disillusioned local militias, allowing them to overrun government positions with minimal resistance. Their ability to mobilize reinforcements and maintain logistical supply chains across war-ravaged terrain proved instrumental.
The group’s access to sophisticated weaponry, allegedly supplied by sympathetic regional powers, like Israel and Turkey, significantly tipped the scales. The HTS’s capture of Aleppo, Syria’s former economic hub, marked a turning point, with widespread defections from Assad’s ranks boosting rebel momentum. From there, they pressed into the Damascus countryside, effectively encircling the capital before launching a decisive assault.
Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a powerful jihadist rebel group with elements of al-Qaida and Islamic State (ISIS) making up its ranks. The group is led by Saudi Arabia-born Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, 42, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani. It emerged in 2017 as a rebranding of Jabhat al-Nusra – al-Qaida’s former Syrian affiliate. While the group claims to have distanced itself from al-Qaida, it retains a hardline jihadist ideology, which advocated for the establishment of a sharia-based governance.
HTS has positioned itself as the dominant rebel force in northwestern Syria, often engaging in brutal suppression of rival factions to consolidate power. HTS’s rise has been facilitated by backing from regional players, including Turkey, which has historically supported Syrian rebel factions as part of its broader strategy against Assad and Kurdish groups.
Turkey has officially designated HTS as a terrorist organization. However, it has historically supported factions within the group to counter Kurdish influence in northern Syria. Its tacit support for HTS through indirect channels has been well-documented.
Other regional players have also shown interest in supporting HTS indirectly through various channels.
Some Gulf states, while refraining from overt backing, have provided financial and logistical aid to anti-Assad forces, inadvertently benefiting HTS. The Gulf states that have been implicated in indirectly or tacitly supporting HTS and similar Syrian rebel factions include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and, to a lesser extent, Kuwait.
The group’s leadership claims to represent Syrian opposition interests, but international observers remain sceptical due to their militant history and repressive governance in territories under their control.
Geopolitical implications
The fall of Assad’s government has profound implications for the Middle East. For Iran, a staunch Assad ally, this development is a significant blow to its influence in the region. The collapse of the Damascus-Tehran axis disrupts Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance”, weakening its strategic depth and severing a key supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This shift threatens Iran’s role as a regional powerbroker and is bound to embolden its rivals, including Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Israel has welcomed these changes, viewing them as an opportunity to diminish Iranian influence near its borders. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has publicly acknowledged that Assad’s ousting aligns with Israel’s strategic interests. However, the rise of HTS could pose new challenges because despite their anti-Assad stance, HTS is ideologically aligned with groups opposed to Israel’s existence.
For Hezbollah, Assad’s downfall jeopardizes its logistical and military capabilities. With no direct land route for arms and support from Iran, the group may face challenges in maintaining its strength against Israel, potentially altering the balance of power in southern Lebanon.
The Palestinian cause also faces uncertainty. Assad’s regime, despite its authoritarian nature, was a supporter of Palestinian factions, like Hamas. HTS’s Islamist ideology may align with some Palestinian groups, but the instability could hinder broader regional efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Turkey emerges as a key player and beneficiary of this development, as its support for HTS strengthens its influence in post-Assad Syria. However, this also complicates relations with western allies wary of HTS’s extremist ties. Nonetheless, Ankara aims to expand its influence in Syria while simultaneously managing Kurdish threats along its borders. This shift could lead to increased Turkish involvement in Syrian affairs and potentially facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.
Russia’s geopolitical setback
Meanwhile, Russia faces perhaps the most significant geopolitical setback since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its substantial military and diplomatic investments in propping up the Assad regime have been effectively nullified. Since its military intervention in Syria, in 2015, Russia has been a key ally to Assad, providing military and diplomatic support that was crucial in sustaining his government during the civil war.
The sudden and dramatic collapse of Assad’s regime not only undermines Russia’s influence in Syria but also poses broader challenges to its geopolitical standing in the region.
Russia’s military presence in Syria, particularly its naval facility in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, has been central to projecting power in the eastern Mediterranean. These bases facilitated Russian military operations and served as logistical hubs for engagements beyond Syria to deep down Africa.
With the fall of Assad, the status and security of these installations are in jeopardy, potentially diminishing Russia’s operational capabilities and its ability to influence regional dynamics.
Russia’s role in Syria elevated its position as a key power broker in the Middle East, allowing it to mediate between various regional actors and assert its interests. Now, the Assad regime’s downfall disrupts this role, as Moscow loses a critical ally that served as a gateway for its regional diplomacy. This shift may compel Russia to recalibrate its relationships with other regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, to maintain its influence.
Also, as the toppling of Assad government significantly weakens the “Axis of Resistance”, which Russia has tacitly supported and which has been instrumental in countering US and Israeli influence in the region, the development complicates Russia’s strategy of balancing relationships with opposing regional blocs and may lead to a realignment of alliances that excludes Russian interests.
In the broader geopolitical context, the collapse of the Assad regime is widely viewed as a seismic geopolitical upheaval not just in the Middle East but across the world. The international community now faces the challenge of addressing the humanitarian and political fallout of this dramatic upheaval.
